Economic Update (Jan 9, 2023)
In this week’s recap: New Year’s rally in reply to positive economic news.
The Week on Wall Street
A strong Friday rally triggered by fresh signs of moderating inflation pushed stocks into positive territory to begin the new year.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.46%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 advanced 1.45%. The Nasdaq Composite index gained 0.98%. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, added 0.90% higher. (Citations 1,2,3)
Stocks Rally
A new year did little to change the market’s overall tenor as trading remained choppy. The first two trading sessions of a holiday-shortened week saw major averages swing wildly between gains and losses as investors balanced an improving outlook on inflation against concerns of faltering economic growth. Mega-cap technology and other high-growth names endured the brunt of the selling pressure.
Stocks took a decisive turn lower Thursday on strong private payroll growth and declining jobless claims, which heightened fears that the Fed would need to push interest rates higher for longer. However, stocks staged a powerful rally on Friday despite another strong job number, partly due to a deceleration in wage growth.
The Labor Market Juggernaut
The Fed has communicated that it’s looking for weakening in the labor market before it can feel confident higher rates are working to slow inflation. Employment reports last week indicated that the Fed might need to wait a bit longer for evidence of a fading labor market.
Automated Data Processing’s (ADP) monthly employment report showed the private sector adding more jobs (235,000) than consensus estimates (153,000), with strong wage gains over the last year (+7.3%). Initial and continuing jobless claims fell in the last week of December and remained at pre-pandemic levels. Finally, the government’s monthly employment report showed employers adding a healthy 223,000 jobs in December. (Citations 4,5,6)
Tip of the Week
Update your will. It is just as important as having one. If you drafted a will years ago, the information is likely in need of some adjustments. Be sure to revisit your will often and keep it up to date.
The Week Ahead
Key Economic Data
Thursday: Consumer Price Index (CPI). Jobless Claims.
Friday: Consumer Sentiment.
Source: Econoday, January 6, 2023
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.
Companies Reporting Earnings
Friday: Bank of America Corporation (BAC), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL), UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH), Citigroup, Inc. (C), Wells Fargo & Company (WFC), BlackRock, Inc. (BLK).
Source: Zacks, January 6, 2023
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.
Quote of the Week
“A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.”
WINSTON CHURCHILL
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CITATIONS:
1. The Wall Street Journal, January 6, 2023
2. The Wall Street Journal, January 6, 2023
3. The Wall Street Journal, January 6, 2023
4. CNBC, January 5, 2023
5. The Wall Street Journal, January 5, 2023
6. The Wall Street Journal, January 6, 2023
