Economic Update (Oct 24, 2022)

Economic Updates

Oct 24

In this week’s recap: Wall Street flips the script, enjoys a rally.

The Week on Wall Street

A positive start to a new earnings season and late-week hopes for a near-term easing in Fed rate hikes lifted investors’ spirits and powered stocks to gains for the week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 4.89%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 advanced 4.74%. The Nasdaq Composite index added 5.22% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 1.66% (Citations 1,2,3).

Earnings, Fed spark rally

The stock market narrative shifted last week from Fed interest rate hikes (a persistent drag on investor sentiment) to corporate earnings, which boosted investor enthusiasm with better-than-expected results. Stocks surged in the first two days of trading on the strength of positive earnings surprises, aided by a modest pullback in bond yields and news that the U.K. was scrapping its tax cut plans.

Mid-week, stocks surrendered some gains on a stronger U.S. dollar and rising bond yields. But on Friday, comments by a Fed official that hinted at a possible relaxation in Fed rate hikes sent stocks soaring to close out a good week.

Better than expected

Investors were approaching the new earnings season with a fair amount of trepidation amid an environment of higher interest rates and a slowing economy. The concern has been that poor earnings may drag stock prices lower from current levels.

Early earnings results have provided investors with mostly positive surprises. With 88 companies comprising the S&P 500 index reporting, 75% reported profits above analysts’ expectations, well above the 66% long-term average (Citation 4).

Tip of the Week

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The Week Ahead

Key economic data

Monday: Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Composite.

Tuesday: Consumer Confidence.

Wednesday: New Home Sales.

Thursday: Jobless Claims. Durable Goods Sales. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Source: Econoday, October 21, 2022

The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

Companies reporting earnings

Tuesday: Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), General Electric Company (GE), Visa, Inc. (V), Alphabet, Inc. (GOOGL), General Motors Company (GM), The CocaCola Company (KO), Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM), 3M Company (MMM), Texas Instruments, Inc. (TXN), United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS), KimberlyClark Corporation (KMB).

Wednesday: The Boeing Company (BA), Ford Motor Company (F), Bristol Myers Squibb Company (BMY), ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW), General Dynamics Corporation (GD), Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC).

Thursday: Apple, Inc. (AAPL), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Intel Corporation (INTC), Mastercard, Inc. (MA), Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT), Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK), McDonald’s Corporation (MCD), Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC), Comcast Corporation (CMCSA), Southwest Airlines Company (LUV).

Friday: AbbVie, Inc. (ABBV), Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), Chevron Corporations (CVX), ColgatePalmolive Company (CL).

Source: Zacks, October 21, 2022

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

Quote of the Week

“Judge each day not by the harvest you reap but by the seeds you plant.”

ROBERT LOUIS STEVENSON

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CITATIONS:

1. The Wall Street Journal, October 21, 2022

2. The Wall Street Journal, October 21, 2022

3. The Wall Street Journal, October 21, 2022

4. Refinitiv, October 20, 2022

Seth Leishman

Seth Leishman is president of Ostrofe Financial Consultants, Inc. and brings more than a decade of experience as a financial advisor. He holds both CPA and CFP® designations. Read his full bio.